David Lockwood looks at the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ‘peace’ deal forced through by Donald Trump.
Imagine the following scenario:
Step 1: the Americans bring forth a ‘peace plan’ that is designed to bring back the remaining Israeli hostages and put in place a shaky ‘ceasefire’. Everything else is purely decorative.
Step 2: Israel continues to occupy a substantial area of Gaza.
Step 3: Israel and the US discover that Hamas (which, unaccountably, still exists) is ‘violating’ the ceasefire and an escalating crescendo of claims and counterclaims ensues. Israel asserts its right to suspend both the ceasefire and the delivery of aid at will.
Step 4: Israel resumes its war in Gaza, declaring that this time it will ‘finish the job’. The US stands back.
As we go to press, we are well into Step 3.
‘Peace’ plan
Like most of Trump’s escapades, it is the marketing rather than the substance that is important here. Emergency meetings, serious faces around the negotiating table, last-minute deadlines – and Trump’s final victory lap through Israel and Egypt. The show’s the thing.
If we can get past the self-glorification of the US President, the plan consisted of a temporary ceasefire and the return of (some) Palestinian and (all) Israeli captives. For Israel, once the captives (living and dead) are returned, that’s the end of the matter. For Palestine, even after hundreds of hostages are returned, hundreds remain, including politically significant leaders, like Marwan Barghouti.
In Israel, the captives that survived have homes to go to. In Gaza, there are no homes – just a pile of shattered concrete. The plan also promised a resumption of aid supplies into Gaza. But Israel continues to treat that as a tap that can be turned on and off to pressure and punish the Gazan population.
Gaza (and the West Bank) still occupied
Israel has withdrawn to the ‘Yellow Line’, thus leaving them in military control of 58% of Gaza. This sustains their stranglehold on the strip and gives the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) a springboard from which to take the rest when it feels so moved. And we have no doubt that they will, if not soon, then later.
The BBC reports Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth describing the line as “effectively the new border”. Al Jazeera reports at least 40 active Israelil military positions in Gaza outside the Yellow Line
The physical presence of the Yellow Line is flimsy at best, the IDF now claims to be installing yellow painted posts every 200 metres.
Reports from Gaza say Palestinians have had little idea of its existence let alone where it actually is. Up to now, this has given IDF commanders ample scope to kill Palestinians they accuse of crossing it. An Israeli tank shell wiped out a bus for crossing the line, killing eleven. In other incidents, Israel has retaliated against alleged Hamas attacks, not confining itself to the area it occupies.
Just this past week, the Knesset has voted (again) to annex the West Bank. The logic of Zionism is clear, if not its timetable.
The Likud party of Prime Minister Netanyahu abstained and Netanyahu is likely to block it, lest he upset Washington further. And Trump said “it’s not going to happen”.
This pause in the killing while a victory of sorts for the Palestinians, is temporary. For now, Trump chose Qatar over Israel. But without a complete transformation of the situation, the momentum continues towards complete Israeli annexation of all the lands of historic Palestine.
Hamas: not going away
One of the key points of the settlement was that Hamas should be cast into outer darkness: disbanded, disarmed and no role in the future of either Gaza or Palestine. This, so far, does not seem to be eventuating. Hamas has not disappeared. On the contrary, it is re-emerging as a military and administrative force in unoccupied Gaza.
Due to the Israeli success in eradicating practically all forms of civil administration – health, education, food – a vacuum arose when the IDF withdrew. Hamas moved back into their former roles of administrators as well as fighters. This has included executions of Israeli collaborators and an attempt to put down various criminal gangs and militias. Some of these were financed by Israel to hunt down Hamas fighters and maintain control. Some of them were implicated in the shootings around food distribution points. Israel will continue to encourage these groups, since any sign of turmoil in the unoccupied section will provide an excuse to move back in.
Where we are now
This is not the full-time score by any means. But it is well to recognise that the Palestinians, except in one respect (survival and a cessation of mass killings), have suffered a major defeat. At least 100,000 dead, the after-effects of famine and Gaza destroyed are testament enough of that.
This means that any attempt in current circumstances to rebuild will be totally dependent on the US and its Arab allies – and on Israel not deciding to finish the job. In the West Bank, where settlers and the IDF killed over a thousand during the Gaza war, it’s business as usual. Israel will continue its long-term campaign of getting the Palestinians out. In these circumstances, no viable Palestinian state can be expected to emerge.
Israel has achieved a number of things over the past two years. It has exacted massive revenge on its Palestinian opponents (for which, sadly but predictably, there was considerable support among Israelis). It has severely damaged Hamas militarily. It has retained control over most of Gaza and all of the West Bank. It has retained the all-important support of the US, despite putting the relationship under severe strain and having to accept an unwanted peace plan. It has demonstrated its military supremacy in the region by attacking Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Qatar and Yemen – with little retribution. If it can provoke enough ‘violations’, Israel is in a strong position to take up its sword again and establish Greater Israel ‘from the river to the sea’, the ultimate goal of all mainstream Zionist parties, not just the far-right and Likud.
For those who stand with Palestine and against Zionism and imperialism, this is not a pretty picture. But such a gloomy prognostication has to be tempered in one important respect. Israel’s genocidal campaign has not gone unanswered. It has been called out and condemned politically and in a mass way – by mass demonstrations, trade union action, boycotts, flotillas, calls for (and action on) disinvestment and demands to stop arms supply. It has given rise to a global anti-Zionist movement which, in its geographic and demographic sweep can only be compared with the global movement against the US war on Vietnam in the 1960s. This movement has had a material impact beyond Palestine – not least effecting elections here, in the UK and Europe, and in the US.
Of course, politicians, governments, union officials, those that preach about the ‘rules-based order’ that apparently exists somewhere have not done enough. The Palestine solidarity movement still has its work cut out to force real action against Israel. But it is the best guarantee that Palestine will not be forgotten.
While we wait to see whether the ceasefire holds, and in what form it takes, we must prepare ourselves. The movement should consolidate – no more competing committees and there should be a unified set of demands. The great efforts behind the Sydney Harbour Bridge demonstration and the national mobilisation that followed should be generalised into a national democratic committee.
Palestinian movement leaders should work towards convening a national conference of anti-imperialist solidarity. Delegates should be elected from ALP and union branches, community groups, socialist organisations and other affiliates.
In between wars (and our prediction is that will not be a very long period), the frequency of mass demonstrations may have to be reduced. But there should be renewed efforts in the unions and renewed pressure on the Labor government to cut ties with Israel. The movement must prepare itself for the next round.